CXW
BuyHot AirAI neutralCoreCivic, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $3.2B cap · $66.9M/day traded
$31.23 -4.1% · close 15 Oct · scored 17 Oct
StockRank down 1.6 since 16 Oct.
Hot Air: Rising on momentum alone: weak business, rich price.
Read our full research report on CXW (Jun 2026), freeReport expected 4 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 13.2% over the last 13 weeks.
As of 17 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) is 69/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 46, Value 38, Momentum 79, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
CoreCivic runs private prisons and detention centres and is benefiting from higher federal immigration detention demand, which is lifting forward estimates and has funded a $500 million accelerated share repurchase. Against that, the CEO resigned for health reasons, making the new chief the third leader in a year; banks including Citizens are exiting its credit facilities; and the business depends on political contract decisions and faces ongoing reputational and legal scrutiny.
ABOUT CORECIVIC, INC.
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CoreCivic, Inc. is a diversified government solutions company that owns and operates correctional and detention facilities, and provides re-entry programs and residential treatment centers. The company benefits from long-term contracts with government agencies, its expertise in managing secure facilities, and its scale as a leading private correctional operator. CoreCivic is a dominant player in the private correctional and detention services industry, adapting its offerings to include rehabilitation and re-entry programs.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 1.8B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.2B | 6.2% | 2.5B | 2.7B | 2.9B | 15.1% |
| EPS | -0.43 | 1.03 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 1.09 | 1.9% | 1.25 | 1.67 | — | 53.0% |
| Shares | — | 115.0M | 112.7M | 109.9M | 100.1M | -13.0% | 98.9M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 1.4B | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.4B | -0.9% | 1.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.5B | 1.4B | -0.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 153.6M | 231.9M | 269.2M | 194.6M | 8.2% | 200.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | 73.0M | -58.9M | -53.8M | -206.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -375.2M | -206.2M | -222.2M | 1.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 15% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 50% of stocks we rank over the past year (41% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of CXW are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc.(you) | $3.2B | 69 | Buy |
| GEO | The GEO Group, Inc. | $4.0B | 79 | Buy |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | $4.3B | 60 | Hold |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | $3.9B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| NSSC | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1.3B | 71 | Buy |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | $7.1B | 77 | Buy |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | $4.6B | 91 | Strong Buy |
| MG | Mistras Group, Inc. | $667M | 71 | Buy |
| NL | NLI Holdings, Inc. | $284M | 65 | Hold |
| CIX | CompX International Inc. | $440M | 98 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 10.1% · P/E 26.6x · Gross margin 29.3%
Company Deep Dive
Read the full research report: business segments breakdown, earnings transcripts review, management credibility analysis, competitive landscape, and scenarios.