NSSC
BuyFallen FavouriteAI neutralNapco Security Technologies, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $1.4B cap · $12.1M/day traded
$38.82 +0.6% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and the price is falling.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) is 70/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 89, Value 30, Momentum 45, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Napco Security Technologies makes intrusion, access-control and door-locking products. Its StarLink cellular communicators generate high-margin recurring service revenue. The quality score is 90, and the shares rose about 20% after record Q4 2026 revenue beat expectations. Against this, insiders sold about 1.46% of the shares outstanding in 90 days, law firms are soliciting investors over possible fiduciary-duty claims, and the value score of 29 suggests the recovery is largely priced in.
The ranks quoted here are from the day it was written; today's Quality, Value and Momentum are the bars above.
ABOUT NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Read
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 143.6M | 170.0M | 188.8M | 181.6M | 8.1% | 202.3M | 196.7M | 213.5M | 5.5% |
| EPS | — | 0.53 | 0.74 | 1.35 | 1.20 | 31.3% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.31 | 3.0% |
| Shares | — | 36.7M | 36.8M | 36.9M | 35.7M | -2.9% | 35.8M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.5M | 7.1M | 5.7M | 5.5M | 5.3M | 36.9% | 5.2M | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 113.8M | 140.2M | 178.9M | 168.6M | 14.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 8.3M | 24.7M | 45.4M | 53.5M | 85.9% | 61.1M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -1.6M | -28.3M | -3.2M | 14.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | 0.2M | -2.2M | -12.8M | -50.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 8 weeks, 15% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 52% of stocks we rank over the past year (40% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of NSSC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSSC | Napco Security Technologies, Inc.(you) | $1.4B | 70 | Buy |
| MG | Mistras Group, Inc. | $686M | 72 | Buy |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | $3.0B | 69 | Buy |
| GEO | The GEO Group, Inc. | $3.6B | 77 | Buy |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | $4.6B | 66 | Buy |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | $3.8B | 82 | Strong Buy |
| NL | NLI Holdings, Inc. | $284M | 67 | Buy |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | $7.0B | 76 | Buy |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | $5.0B | 91 | Strong Buy |
| CIX | CompX International Inc. | $445M | 98 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 8.9% · P/E 25.9x · Gross margin 29.2%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.