MPC
Strong BuyPremium GrowerAI neutralMarathon Petroleum Corporation · Energy · United States · $128.4B cap · $1.2B/day traded
$457.22 -0.4% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Report expected 3 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 117.1% over the last 14 weeks, up 4 weeks running.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is 92/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 72, Value 37, Momentum 86, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Although MPC benefits directly from energy price floors and has strong buyback momentum, the recorded net insider selling (0.01%) serves as a negative signal that triggers an automatic flag under the screen rules.
ABOUT MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading integrated downstream energy company, primarily involved in refining, marketing, and transporting petroleum products across the United States. As one of the largest refiners in the U.S. by capacity, MPC benefits from strategically located refineries and a robust midstream infrastructure through its MPLX partnership. The company also maintains a significant retail marketing footprint, optimizing its vast refining capabilities and logistics network.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 177.5B | 148.4B | 138.9B | 132.7B | -9.2% | 154.1B | 169.2B | 151.6B | 6.9% |
| EPS | 28.31 | 23.73 | 10.11 | 13.24 | -22.4% | 28.88 | 53.08 | 37.02 | 67.2% |
| Shares | 454.0M | 368.0M | 316.0M | 294.6M | -35.1% | 280.8M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 27.9B | 28.5B | 28.8B | 34.4B | 7.2% | 34.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 27.7B | 24.4B | 17.7B | 17.3B | -14.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 16.4B | 14.1B | 8.7B | 8.3B | -20.4% | 17.1B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 623.0M | -3.1B | 1.5B | -5.9B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -13.6B | -14.2B | -12.4B | -1.9B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 7% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 61% of stocks we rank over the past year (36% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of MPC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation(you) | $128.4B | 92 | Strong Buy |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | $113.5B | 87 | Strong Buy |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | $120.7B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | $21.6B | 93 | Strong Buy |
| 5020.T | ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | $24.0B | 81 | Strong Buy |
| TUPRS.IS | Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. | $14.0B | 97 | Strong Buy |
| 6505.TW | Formosa Petrochemical Corporation | $31.1B | 66 | Buy |
| 5019.T | Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | $11.8B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| UGPA3.SA | Ultrapar Participações S.A. | $8.2B | 91 | Strong Buy |
| BPCL.NS | Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited | $12.9B | 82 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 8.1% · P/E 14.9x · Gross margin 35.6%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.