VLO
Strong BuyPremium GrowerAI pickValero Energy Corporation · Energy · United States · $120.7B cap · $1.4B/day traded
$419.28 -1.6% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
StockRank down 1.0 since 23 Oct.
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Reported 22 Oct: the next-year EPS estimate rose 9.0% across the report (snapshots of 18 Oct and 25 Oct).
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is 85/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 68, Value 30, Momentum 85, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Valero is the largest independent US refiner, with a low-cost, diesel-capable Gulf Coast system that buys advantaged North American crude and sells into a middle-distillate market that record diesel prices show is tighter than crude itself. Refining margins, not headline oil, are where the current energy shock is showing up, and forward earnings estimates have risen about 22% in four weeks as analysts catch up. Rival West Coast refinery closures further tighten regional supply. The company runs an active buyback and has a long record of returning most free cash flow to shareholders, so elevated margins turn quickly into per-share value.
ABOUT VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
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Valero Energy Corporation is the largest independent petroleum refiner in the United States, producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt, and operates ethanol plants. It is a dominant player in North American refining, leveraging its complex refinery configurations, strategic pipeline access, and scale to optimize crude oil processing and product distribution. The company focuses on efficient operations and geographical advantage, serving major markets across the U.S. and internationally.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 176.4B | 144.8B | 129.9B | 122.7B | -11.4% | 146.6B | 162.2B | 144.5B | 8.5% |
| EPS | 29.05 | 24.93 | 8.58 | 7.57 | -36.1% | 43.97 | 59.64 | 51.65 | 161.2% |
| Shares | 372.1M | 333.3M | 314.9M | 298.9M | -19.7% | 287.9M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 12.7B | 12.6B | 11.5B | 11.7B | -2.7% | 11.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 23.6B | 26.3B | 24.5B | 23.7B | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 12.6B | 9.2B | 6.7B | 5.8B | -22.6% | 5.8B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -2.8B | -1.9B | -2.0B | -1.8B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -8.8B | -6.9B | -5.0B | -4.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 9% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 58% of stocks we rank over the past year (38% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of VLO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation(you) | $120.7B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | $113.5B | 87 | Strong Buy |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $128.4B | 92 | Strong Buy |
| 5020.T | ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | $24.0B | 81 | Strong Buy |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | $21.6B | 93 | Strong Buy |
| 6505.TW | Formosa Petrochemical Corporation | $31.1B | 66 | Buy |
| 5019.T | Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | $11.8B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| BPCL.NS | Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited | $12.9B | 82 | Strong Buy |
| NESTE.HE | Neste Oyj | $26.9B | 64 | Hold |
| TUPRS.IS | Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. | $14.0B | 97 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 8.1% · P/E 15.0x · Gross margin 35.6%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.