PACS
Premium GrowerAI concernPACS Group, Inc. · Healthcare · United States · $7.5B cap · $42.1M/day traded
$48.00 -4.1% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Score down 1.0 since 12 Nov.
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Strong on the numbers, but the AI review named a specific concern. Its reason is in the AI review below.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) is 67/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 55, Value 32, Momentum 77, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
PACS Group operates skilled nursing and senior care facilities across the US and is growing fast through acquisitions, including 32 facilities in Florida and further Eduro sites. The growth story is overshadowed by governance concerns: after a 2024 short-seller report, the company delayed its financial filings and opened an internal investigation into its Medicare Part B billing practices, and shareholder litigation over insiders' conduct continues. Insiders have also sold about 0.74% of shares outstanding in the past 90 days, and the Chief Legal Officer is being replaced. Heavy dependence on Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement adds regulatory risk on top of these questions about accounting and billing.
ABOUT PACS GROUP, INC.
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PACS Group, Inc. is a leading post-acute healthcare company that operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, and independent living communities across the United States. The company's competitive moat is driven by its decentralized operating model, which empowers local administrators to optimize clinical outcomes and financial performance tailored to their specific communities. As a scaled operator in a highly fragmented industry, PACS Group is well-positioned to leverage its operational efficiencies and capitalize on the long-term demographic tailwinds of an aging U.S. population.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4B | 3.1B | 4.1B | 5.3B | 29.7% | 5.7B | 5.9B | 6.7B | 12.5% |
| EPS | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.38 | 1.23 | 7.1% | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 24.6% |
| Shares | 147.8M | 147.8M | 155.2M | 156.6M | +6.0% | 158.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.9B | 2.8B | 3.5B | 3.5B | 21.7% | 3.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 63.6M | 96.1M | 709.6M | 946.8M | 145.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 92.6M | 63.7M | 367.3M | 404.2M | 63.4% | 579.7M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -75.3M | -172.8M | -442.7M | -264.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 12.3M | 129.6M | 117.5M | -69.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 7% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 93% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 93% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend (this stock): It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of PACS are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| PACS | PACS Group, Inc.(you) | $7.5B | 67 |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group, Inc. | $10.2B | 68 |
| LFST | LifeStance Health Group, Inc. | $4.9B | 70 |
| DVA | DaVita Inc. | $11.7B | 76 |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $2.9B | 68 |
| NHC | National HealthCare Corporation | $3.7B | 73 |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | $6.7B | 90 |
| OPCH | Option Care Health, Inc. | $4.7B | 84 |
| CON | Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | $5.0B | 86 |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | $2.1B | 64 |
Peer medians: ROE -31.0% · P/E 25.7x · Gross margin 63.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.