ACHC
Hot AirAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc. · Healthcare · United States · $2.9B cap · $79.7M/day traded
$37.81 -2.6% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts raised next year's EPS estimate 1.1%.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) is 68/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 41, Value 44, Momentum 80, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC.
Read
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. is a leading provider of behavioral healthcare services, operating an extensive network of inpatient psychiatric facilities, residential treatment centers, and specialty treatment facilities across the United States. The company holds a strong market position due to its broad geographic diversification, specialized treatment programs, and commitment to clinical excellence. Its scale and expertise create a significant competitive moat in addressing growing mental health needs.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6B | 2.9B | 3.2B | 3.3B | 8.3% | 3.4B | 3.4B | 3.7B | 5.0% |
| EPS | 3.05 | -0.24 | 2.79 | -12.16 | -4.4% | -12.44 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 89.9M | 91.3M | 91.8M | 90.5M | +0.6% | 93.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.5B | 1.5B | 2.1B | 2.6B | 20.0% | 2.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.8B | 2.8B | 3.1B | 1.9B | -11.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 380.6M | 462.3M | 129.7M | 131.9M | -29.8% | 235.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -305.8M | -397.2M | -736.5M | -556.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -110.9M | -62.7M | 583.0M | 481.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 5% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 79% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 65% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend (this stock): It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ACHC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.(you) | $2.9B | 68 |
| NHC | National HealthCare Corporation | $3.7B | 73 |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | $2.1B | 64 |
| ASTH | Astrana Health, Inc. | $1.9B | 65 |
| LFST | LifeStance Health Group, Inc. | $4.9B | 70 |
| USPH | U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. | $1.3B | 65 |
| PACS | PACS Group, Inc. | $7.5B | 67 |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. | $2.9B | 90 |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | $2.5B | 88 |
| INNV | InnovAge Holding Corp. | $1.3B | 77 |
Peer medians: ROE -30.0% · P/E 25.9x · Gross margin 63.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.