PARR
Strong BuyFull HouseAI pickPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. · Energy · United States · $3.9B cap · $71.7M/day traded
$77.15 -3.8% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, market agrees. The rare full house.
Report expected 3 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 55.5% over the last 14 weeks, up 3 weeks running.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) is 99/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 83, Value 68, Momentum 70, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Par Pacific operates highly advantaged refining, logistics, and retail networks in geographically isolated markets, most notably Hawaii where its Kapolei facility represents the state's sole refining asset protected by maritime Jones Act logistics barriers. With intensifying Middle East conflict and sanctions disrupting tanker routes and creating structural refined product deficits, Par Pacific commands superior regional pricing power and elevated diesel crack spreads that Wall Street consensus treats as fleeting. Management is allocating capital aggressively into this inflection, repurchasing 3.2% of outstanding shares over 90 days, divesting non-core Colorado assets for $146 million to reinforce balance sheet flexibility, and driving consecutive upward revisions in forward consensus earnings. [BUYBACK TAILWIND: Active buyback (SEC): $127M repurchased (ending 2025-12-31)]
ABOUT PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC.
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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is a diversified energy company primarily focused on refining, marketing, and logistics operations in geographically strategic, niche markets like Hawaii, Wyoming, and the Pacific Northwest. The company benefits from its integrated supply chain, which spans crude sourcing, refining, and retail distribution, providing a competitive moat in regions with limited competition. This vertical integration ensures efficiency and market stability within its operating territories.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.3B | 8.2B | 8.0B | 7.5B | 0.6% | 8.6B | 9.4B | 8.2B | 4.9% |
| EPS | 6.12 | 12.14 | -0.59 | 7.28 | 6.0% | 17.13 | 24.45 | 16.35 | 49.9% |
| Shares | 60.5M | 59.8M | 55.3M | 49.7M | -17.8% | 50.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 870.6M | 1.0B | 1.6B | 1.2B | 12.1% | 1.1B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 644.5M | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.5B | 32.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 452.6M | 579.2M | 83.8M | 445.3M | -0.5% | 555.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -87.3M | -659.0M | -134.0M | -142.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 13.4M | -135.6M | -37.0M | -330.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 15% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 73% of stocks we rank over the past year (58% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of PARR are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.(you) | $3.9B | 99 | Strong Buy |
| DK | Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $4.6B | 82 | Strong Buy |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | $21.6B | 93 | Strong Buy |
| CVI | CVR Energy, Inc. | $5.8B | 61 | Hold |
| SGU | Star Group, L.P. | $431M | 94 | Strong Buy |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | $13.8B | 71 | Buy |
| WKC | World Kinect Corporation | $1.9B | 58 | Hold |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | $9.0B | 61 | Hold |
| CAPL | CrossAmerica Partners LP | $844M | 74 | Buy |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners, LP | $3.3B | 42 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 9.4% · P/E 17.7x · Gross margin 43.8%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.