PGR
HoldFallen FavouriteThe Progressive Corporation · Financial Services · United States · $117.9B cap · $661.4M/day traded
$221.35 -0.3% · close 21 Oct · scored 22 Oct
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and the price is falling.
Read our full research report on PGR (Jun 2026), freeAs of 22 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is 64/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 71, Value 40, Momentum 47, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION
Read
The Progressive Corporation is a leading U.S. auto insurance provider, also offering various property and casualty insurance products. The company distinguishes itself through its innovative direct-to-consumer model, advanced data analytics for pricing, and strong brand recognition, enabling it to capture significant market share.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 49.6B | 62.1B | 75.3B | 87.6B | 20.9% | 91.7B | 91.8B | 96.6B | 5.0% |
| EPS | 1.19 | 6.61 | 14.45 | 19.29 | 153.1% | 19.85 | 19.47 | 17.18 | -5.6% |
| Shares | 584.9M | 585.3M | 586.0M | 586.1M | +0.2% | 580.4M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 6.4B | 6.9B | 6.9B | 6.9B | 2.6% | 8.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 15.9B | 20.3B | 25.6B | 30.3B | 24.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 6.8B | 10.6B | 15.1B | 17.5B | 36.8% | 17.5B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -8.0B | -10.8B | -13.7B | -14.5B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 1.1B | 78.0M | -1.3B | -3.0B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 7% below its 52-week high.
The Momentum score still reads 47: it weighs six months of price and earnings revisions, so it trails a turn like this.
Calmer than 80% of stocks we rank over the past year (26% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Financial Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of PGR are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | The Progressive Corporation(you) | $117.9B | 64 | Hold |
| CB | Chubb Limited | $129.3B | 65 | Buy |
| 8766.T | Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. | $96.3B | 72 | Buy |
| TRV | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75.2B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| WRB | W. R. Berkley Corporation | $25.1B | 64 | Hold |
| 601319.SS | The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited | $53.2B | 80 | Buy |
| 8630.T | Sompo Holdings, Inc. | $38.4B | 76 | Buy |
| FFH.TO | Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited | $32.7B | 73 | Buy |
| MKL | Markel Group Inc. | $21.6B | 66 | Buy |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | $57.1B | 94 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 10.2% · P/E 12.1x · Gross margin 86.5%
Company Deep Dive
Read the full research report: business segments breakdown, earnings transcripts review, management credibility analysis, competitive landscape, and scenarios.