VEL
SinkerVelocity Financial, Inc. · Financial Services · United States · $604M cap · $2.7M/day traded
$16.11 -1.6% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) is 34/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 47, Value 46, Momentum 32, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT VELOCITY FINANCIAL, INC.
Read
Velocity Financial is a specialized real estate finance company that originates and manages investor loans secured by 1-4 unit residential rental and small commercial properties. Operating in the underserved non-owner occupied mortgage market, the company utilizes a nationwide network of independent mortgage brokers to source loans. Its proprietary underwriting platform and extensive historical performance data enable precise risk pricing, establishing it as a leading niche player in the private money lending space.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 91.2M | 155.5M | 211.7M | 311.5M | 50.6% | 380.3M | 320.8M | 359.0M | 7.3% |
| EPS | 0.99 | 1.60 | 2.07 | 2.81 | 41.6% | 2.77 | 2.77 | 2.92 | 2.0% |
| Shares | 32.5M | 32.9M | 33.5M | 39.6M | +21.8% | 39.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 3.3B | 3.8B | 4.9B | 6.5B | 25.9% | 7.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 376.8M | 433.4M | 516.9M | 672.5M | 21.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 48.7M | 48.8M | 37.8M | 18.2M | -28.0% | 18.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -908.2M | -584.7M | -1.0B | -1.5B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 874.0M | 535.8M | 1.0B | 1.7B | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 6 weeks, 14% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 78% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 27% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Financial Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of VEL are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| VEL | Velocity Financial, Inc.(you) | $604M | 34 |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | $1.2B | 37 |
| ONIT | Onity Group Inc. | $215M | 27 |
| LDI | loanDepot, Inc. | $273M | 11 |
| UWMC | UWM Holdings Corporation | $2.3B | 20 |
| BETR | Better Home & Finance Holding Company | $318M | 3 |
| PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | $3.3B | 12 |
| IOR | Income Opportunity Realty Investors, Inc. | $74M | 19 |
| BLNE | Beeline Holdings, Inc. | $63M | 16 |
| LDP | Cohen & Steers Limited Duration Preferred and Income Fund, Inc. | $599M | 33 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.6% · P/E 12.8x · Gross margin 70.8%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.