002707.SZ
Fallen FavouriteUTour Group Co., Ltd. · Consumer Cyclical · China · $725M cap · $10.1M/day traded
CNY 5.12 -1.3% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and its momentum is weak.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for UTour Group Co., Ltd. (002707.SZ) is 28/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 56, Value 18, Momentum 41, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT UTOUR GROUP CO., LTD.
Read
UTour Group Co., Ltd. provides outbound travel services, specializing in wholesale and retail tour packages, corporate travel, and customized tourism. The company is a leading player in China's outbound tourism market, leveraging a comprehensive distribution network and strong relationships with global travel suppliers. It is characterized by its asset-light business model and extensive digital platform integration.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (CNY)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 507.0M | 3.3B | 6.5B | 6.8B | 137.9% | 6.3B | 6.6B | 7.0B | 1.4% |
| EPS (CNY) | -0.24 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.01 | -53.9% | 0.01 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 982.7M | 982.7M | 982.7M | 982.7M | 0.0% | 982.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 591.6M | 456.3M | 235.8M | 96.2M | -45.4% | 72.1M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 722.1M | 748.7M | 860.4M | 892.8M | 7.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | -213.7M | 169.9M | 347.4M | 197.8M | 7.9% | 241.1M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 154.4M | -88.4M | 1.9M | 24.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -7.7M | -146.5M | -287.4M | -157.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 16 weeks, 11% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 63% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 35% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of 002707.SZ are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 002707.SZ | UTour Group Co., Ltd.(you) | $725M | 28 |
| 600576.SS | Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Tourism Co.,Ltd. | $754M | 19 |
| 000524.SZ | Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited | $863M | 18 |
| 000888.SZ | Emei Shan Tourism Co.,Ltd | $718M | 41 |
| 603099.SS | Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. | $1.5B | 30 |
| 000796.SZ | Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. | $786M | 6 |
| 300859.SZ | Western Regions Tourism Development Co.,Ltd | $494M | 10 |
| TOUR | Tuniu Corporation | $52M | 37 |
| 0780.HK | Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited | $3.0B | 75 |
| 603158.SS | Changzhou Tenglong AutoPartsCo.,Ltd. | $724M | 27 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.1% · P/E 23.2x · Gross margin 21.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.