ESRT
Bargain BinEmpire State Realty Trust, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $1.5B cap · $22.9M/day traded
$5.23 +0.4% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Score down 1.8 since 10 Nov.
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) is 41/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 39, Value 51, Momentum 44, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT EMPIRE STATE REALTY TRUST, INC.
Read
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages office and retail properties in Manhattan, including the iconic Empire State Building. The company's competitive moat is anchored by its world-famous observatory business and its portfolio of transit-oriented, energy-efficient office spaces. It operates as a dominant, pure-play New York City real estate operator.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 707.0M | 739.6M | 763.2M | 767.8M | 2.8% | 778.1M | 742.6M | 739.5M | -1.9% |
| EPS | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 5.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Shares | 161.1M | 163.0M | 167.4M | 170.5M | +5.8% | 167.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.3B | 2.3B | 2.5B | 2.4B | 1.8% | 2.2B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 954.4M | 985.5M | 1.0B | 1.1B | 3.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 211.2M | 232.5M | 260.9M | 249.1M | 5.7% | 249.1M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -230.9M | -77.3M | -397.1M | -550.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -140.2M | -62.9M | 158.6M | 38.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
33% above its 52-week low and back above a rising 50-day average since 28 Oct 2026.
The Momentum score still reads 44: it weighs six months of price and earnings revisions, so it trails a turn like this.
Calmer than 63% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 35% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ESRT are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.(you) | $1.5B | 41 |
| GNL | Global Net Lease, Inc. | $1.7B | 43 |
| AAT | American Assets Trust, Inc. | $1.7B | 54 |
| GOOD | Gladstone Commercial Corporation | $586M | 41 |
| SAFE | Safehold Inc. | $795M | 32 |
| BNL | Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | $3.7B | 36 |
| JBGS | JBG SMITH Properties | $894M | 28 |
| FVR | FrontView REIT, Inc. | $536M | 49 |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties, Inc. | $489M | 50 |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | $741M | 60 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.7%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.