SAFE
Bargain BinSafehold Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $795M cap · $8.4M/day traded
$10.48 +1.6% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
After its 3 Nov results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 1.7%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Safehold Inc. (SAFE) is 32/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 40, Value 62, Momentum 21, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT SAFEHOLD INC.
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Safehold Inc. operates as a pioneering real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in modern ground leases, providing a unique and efficient capital solution for institutional-quality properties. The company's competitive moat is built on its specialized expertise and innovative ground lease structure, which offers long-term, inflation-protected income streams for investors. Safehold is expanding its market by unlocking value for property owners through its flexible financing alternative.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 270.3M | 352.6M | 365.7M | 385.6M | 12.6% | 457.8M | 457.5M | 475.3M | 11.0% |
| EPS | 2.17 | -0.82 | 1.48 | 1.60 | -9.7% | 1.61 | 1.54 | 1.59 | -0.3% |
| Shares | 62.4M | 71.1M | 71.4M | 71.8M | +15.0% | 70.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 3.5B | 4.0B | 4.2B | 4.5B | 8.4% | 4.8B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.1B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 4.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 64.9M | 15.4M | 37.9M | 47.8M | -9.7% | 43.8M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.1B | -576.6M | -212.4M | -237.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 1.1B | 559.5M | 144.9M | 203.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 3 trading days ago, 40% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 68% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 33% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of SAFE are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAFE | Safehold Inc.(you) | $795M | 32 |
| JBGS | JBG SMITH Properties | $894M | 28 |
| GOOD | Gladstone Commercial Corporation | $586M | 41 |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | $1.5B | 41 |
| FVR | FrontView REIT, Inc. | $536M | 49 |
| GNL | Global Net Lease, Inc. | $1.7B | 43 |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties, Inc. | $489M | 50 |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | $741M | 60 |
| BNL | Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. | $3.7B | 36 |
| NXDT | NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust | $260M | 19 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.2% · P/E 24.0x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.