MGY
BuyFallen FavouriteAI pickMagnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · Energy · United States · $7.2B cap · $87.2M/day traded
$23.67 +0.6% · close 6 Nov · scored 7 Nov
StockRank up 1.1 since 6 Nov.
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and its momentum is weak.
As of 7 Nov 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is 80/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 83, Value 47, Momentum 47, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how each tenth of the ranking did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Magnolia Oil & Gas is a low-cost onshore producer in South Texas (Eagle Ford and the Giddings field of the Austin Chalk) with a long record of spending well within cash flow, keeping debt low and returning surplus cash through dividends and share repurchases. Q2 2026 brought record production, and the company has since completed the acquisition of WildFire Energy, adding acreage in its core Giddings area. With a lasting risk premium in crude tied to the conflict around Iran, a disciplined North American producer that needs no outside funding captures higher oil prices directly while the balance sheet protects it if prices retreat. Forward-EPS consensus has edged up about 1.8% over the past month and an insider purchase was filed on 25 September, both consistent with steady business momentum.
The ranks quoted here are from the day it was written; today's Quality, Value and Momentum are the bars above.
ABOUT MAGNOLIA OIL & GAS CORPORATION
Read
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas. The company emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation strategy and high-return, low-risk development within its established acreage. This concentrated, high-quality asset base and focus on free cash flow generation provide a competitive edge in the U.S. onshore energy sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.3B | -8.2% | 1.5B | 2.1B | 2.8B | 45.3% |
| EPS | 4.73 | 2.04 | 1.94 | 1.73 | -28.5% | 2.28 | 2.98 | 3.13 | 34.4% |
| Shares | 192.0M | 183.2M | 189.4M | 181.2M | -5.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Debt | 390.4M | 392.8M | 404.7M | 411.5M | 1.8% | 413.1M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.9B | 1.9B | 7.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.3B | 855.8M | 920.9M | 878.6M | -12.2% | 1.0B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -518.9M | -814.9M | -655.1M | -540.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -469.3M | -315.2M | -406.8M | -331.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 65% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 34% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of MGY are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation(you) | $7.2B | 80 | Buy |
| MUR | Murphy Oil Corporation | $6.4B | 76 | Buy |
| MTDR | Matador Resources Company | $7.4B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| RRC | Range Resources Corporation | $10.6B | 80 | Buy |
| CNX | CNX Resources Corporation | $5.4B | 83 | Strong Buy |
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Company | $5.4B | 75 | Buy |
| CHRD | Chord Energy Corporation | $8.6B | 95 | Strong Buy |
| BSM | Black Stone Minerals, L.P. | $3.2B | 83 | Strong Buy |
| AR | Antero Resources Corporation | $12.3B | 89 | Strong Buy |
| SM | SM Energy Company | $9.5B | 94 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 9.4% · P/E 17.1x · Gross margin 43.6%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.