NREF
Bargain BinNexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $360M cap · $855K/day traded
$13.19 +3.0% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Score down 2.9 since 10 Nov: Momentum down 3 after a 5% price fall.
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF) is 47/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 46, Value 55, Momentum 39, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT NEXPOINT REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
Read
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.5M | 1.4M | 29.2M | 175.5M | 135.0% | 151.3M | 243.0M | 250.8M | 19.6% |
| EPS | 0.22 | 0.60 | 1.02 | 4.28 | 169.0% | 2.29 | 4.05 | 4.07 | -2.5% |
| Shares | 17.1M | 17.2M | 17.5M | 18.6M | +8.7% | 18.8M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 7.3B | 6.3B | 4.6B | 4.2B | -16.7% | 4.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 384.0M | 355.9M | 482.2M | 749.5M | 25.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 65.8M | 31.6M | 29.3M | 22.9M | -29.6% | 6.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 950.6M | 741.3M | 956.5M | 321.5M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -1.0B | -721.2M | -1.1B | -424.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 79% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 27% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of NREF are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| NREF | NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.(you) | $360M | 47 |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | $482M | 40 |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $518M | 32 |
| SEVN | Seven Hills Realty Trust | $140M | 42 |
| REFI | Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $240M | 65 |
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $463M | 25 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $1.2B | 42 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 31 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $337M | 15 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $673M | 22 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.2% · P/E 24.0x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.