MFA
SinkerMFA Financial, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $673M cap · $17.1M/day traded
$5.84 -2.2% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 1.0%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) is 22/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 38, Value 43, Momentum 26, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT MFA FINANCIAL, INC.
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MFA Financial, Inc. is a specialty finance real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in residential mortgage assets, including residential whole loans, business-purpose loans, and mortgage-backed securities. The company's competitive moat is enhanced by its vertical integration through Lima One Capital, a wholly owned subsidiary that originates high-yield, business-purpose loans for real estate investors. This proprietary origination capability, combined with active portfolio management of credit-sensitive assets, allows MFA to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns across varying interest rate cycles.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -84.6M | 205.5M | 252.9M | 298.6M | 20.6% | 132.5M | 311.6M | 293.4M | -0.9% |
| EPS | -2.57 | 0.46 | 0.83 | 1.31 | 68.8% | -0.53 | 1.47 | 1.79 | 17.0% |
| Shares | 101.8M | 101.9M | 102.1M | 101.7M | -0.1% | 101.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 3.6B | 5.0B | 6.0B | 6.6B | 22.0% | 11.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.0B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.8B | -2.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 355.3M | 108.7M | 200.1M | 76.2M | -40.1% | 468.6M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.1B | -1.5B | -424.6M | -1.8B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 850.2M | 1.4B | 337.6M | 1.5B | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low in the latest session, 38% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 85% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 24% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of MFA are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc.(you) | $673M | 22 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $849M | 25 |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | $704M | 15 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 31 |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $604M | 15 |
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $463M | 25 |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $518M | 32 |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. | $592M | 8 |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | $997M | 13 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $337M | 15 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.