BRSP
SinkerBrightSpire Capital, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $463M cap · $6.4M/day traded
$3.21 -2.1% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
After its 27 Oct results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 4.1%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) is 25/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 32, Value 48, Momentum 31, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT BRIGHTSPIRE CAPITAL, INC.
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BrightSpire Capital, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance company operating as a mortgage REIT. The company's competitive moat is its focus on originating senior floating-rate loans secured by transitional commercial properties, which provides protection against rising interest rates. It operates as a specialized institutional lender in the middle-market commercial real estate sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 358.5M | 392.1M | 347.2M | 322.5M | -3.5% | 336.2M | 549.2M | 455.6M | 18.9% |
| EPS | 0.35 | -0.12 | -1.05 | -0.26 | — | 0.13 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 128.9M | 130.0M | 129.7M | 128.6M | -0.2% | 124.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 3.2B | 2.7B | 2.5B | 2.5B | -7.9% | 2.6B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.0B | 938.4M | -12.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 125.3M | 137.6M | 103.4M | 73.0M | -16.5% | 72.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 89.3M | 384.2M | 313.1M | -419.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -161.5M | -558.6M | -327.9M | 68.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low in the latest session, 43% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 82% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 25% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of BRSP are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc.(you) | $463M | 25 |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $518M | 32 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $673M | 22 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $849M | 25 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 31 |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $604M | 15 |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | $482M | 40 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $337M | 15 |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | $704M | 15 |
| RWT | Redwood Trust, Inc. | $399M | 7 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.7%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.