REFI
Unloved QualityChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $240M cap · $1.4M/day traded
$8.80 -5.0% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Score up 4.2 since 10 Nov: Momentum up 4 after a 5% price rise.
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) is 65/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 63, Value 53, Momentum 45, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT CHICAGO ATLANTIC REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
Read
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a mortgage REIT specializing in originating and managing senior secured loans to state-licensed cannabis operators across the United States. The company carves out a niche by providing critical debt capital to businesses in the high-growth cannabis industry that often lack access to traditional banking services. This specialized focus allows it to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns in a unique regulatory environment.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 48.9M | 57.3M | 54.8M | 55.6M | 4.4% | 48.8M | 55.0M | 59.6M | 3.6% |
| EPS | 1.83 | 2.14 | 1.92 | 1.71 | -2.2% | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.84 | 3.7% |
| Shares | 17.8M | 18.2M | 20.8M | 21.1M | +18.6% | 25.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 58.0M | 66.0M | 104.1M | 98.4M | 19.3% | 140.5M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 264.0M | 271.9M | 309.0M | 307.8M | 5.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 17.0M | 28.4M | 23.2M | 28.8M | 19.2% | 26.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -125.2M | -1.9M | -39.3M | 8.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 33.7M | -24.3M | 34.6M | -49.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 83% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 25% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of REFI are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| REFI | Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.(you) | $240M | 65 |
| SUNS | Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. | $86M | 65 |
| NREF | NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $360M | 47 |
| SEVN | Seven Hills Realty Trust | $140M | 42 |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $825M | 77 |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | $482M | 40 |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $518M | 32 |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation | $186M | 21 |
| ACR | ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. | $183M | 19 |
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $463M | 25 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.2% · P/E 24.0x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.