OSG
Bargain BinOctave Specialty Group, Inc. · Financial Services · United States · $214M cap · $2.6M/day traded
$5.29 -2.2% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) is 34/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 33, Value 56, Momentum 36, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP, INC.
Read
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is a specialty insurance provider focusing on niche commercial risks and customized underwriting solutions. The company maintains a competitive edge by targeting underserved segments of the excess and surplus (E&S) lines market where standard carriers do not operate. Its disciplined risk assessment and specialized distribution channels position it as a highly agile player in the specialty insurance sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53.6M | 124.7M | 235.3M | 248.6M | 66.8% | 320.7M | 358.8M | 406.0M | 27.8% |
| EPS | 11.48 | 0.18 | -11.96 | -5.93 | -98.4% | -1.98 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 45.0M | 45.2M | 46.5M | 45.0M | +0.1% | 45.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 3.7B | 0 | 150.0M | 117.6M | -68.5% | 155.5M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.3B | 1.4B | 798.4M | 715.8M | -17.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 70.4M | 36.9M | 0.8M | -52.3M | -89.6% | -97.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -41.2M | -26.7M | -166.4M | 199.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -19.2M | -11.0M | 194.2M | -126.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
39% above its 52-week low and back above a rising 50-day average since 3 Nov 2026.
The Momentum score still reads 36: it weighs six months of price and earnings revisions, so it trails a turn like this.
Swung more than 81% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 68% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Financial Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of OSG are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSG | Octave Specialty Group, Inc.(you) | $214M | 34 |
| JRVR | James River Group Holdings, Inc. | $184M | 41 |
| MBI | MBIA Inc. | $228M | 17 |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE, Inc. | $488M | 48 |
| EIG | Employers Holdings, Inc. | $935M | 39 |
| ITIC | Investors Title Company | $532M | 70 |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 79 |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | $6.6B | 65 |
| PSF | Cohen & Steers Select Preferred and Income Fund, Inc. | $215M | 34 |
| DAAQ | Digital Asset Acquisition Corp. | $241M | 35 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.6% · P/E 12.8x · Gross margin 71.1%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.