AMSF
Unloved QualityAMERISAFE, Inc. · Financial Services · United States · $488M cap · $8.0M/day traded
$19.31 -2.9% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
After its 28 Oct results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 7.4%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) is 48/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 64, Value 70, Momentum 8, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT AMERISAFE, INC.
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AMERISAFE, Inc. specializes in providing workers' compensation insurance for small to mid-sized employers operating in high-hazard industries across the United States. The company distinguishes itself through a disciplined underwriting approach and extensive loss control services tailored to inherently riskier occupations, allowing it to maintain a strong market position within this niche. This focused strategy enables AMERISAFE to achieve competitive loss ratios and serve an often-underserved segment.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 294.7M | 306.9M | 309.0M | 317.3M | 2.5% | 333.5M | 335.2M | 343.9M | 4.1% |
| EPS | 2.89 | 3.24 | 2.91 | 2.48 | -5.0% | 2.15 | 2.07 | 2.11 | -7.7% |
| Shares | 19.2M | 19.1M | 19.1M | 18.8M | -1.9% | 18.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | 317.4M | 292.5M | 257.3M | 251.6M | -7.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 28.2M | 29.8M | 24.2M | 11.1M | -26.8% | 12.6M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 75.4M | 43.9M | 72.4M | 68.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -112.9M | -96.5M | -91.2M | -61.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 2 trading days ago, 49% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 69% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 32% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Financial Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AMSF are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMSF | AMERISAFE, Inc.(you) | $488M | 48 |
| EIG | Employers Holdings, Inc. | $935M | 39 |
| ITIC | Investors Title Company | $532M | 70 |
| JRVR | James River Group Holdings, Inc. | $184M | 41 |
| OSG | Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | $214M | 34 |
| MBI | MBIA Inc. | $228M | 17 |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 79 |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | $6.6B | 65 |
| FNF | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $10.8B | 62 |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 73 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.6% · P/E 12.8x · Gross margin 71.1%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.