PGY
Strong BuyFull HouseAI neutralPagaya Technologies Ltd. · Technology · United States · $1.6B cap · $44.6M/day traded
$19.09 -0.7% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, market agrees. The rare full house.
Report expected 29 Oct: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 16.2% over the last 14 weeks.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is 99/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 77, Value 79, Momentum 66, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Pagaya Technologies operates an AI-driven credit underwriting network, securing committed funding facilities and AAA-rated asset-backed securitization transactions with institutional capital partners. However, the business model remains structurally dependent on continuous institutional funding liquidity and wholesale ABS markets, while recent insider share sales by leadership warrant caution during a volatile interest rate environment.
ABOUT PAGAYA TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a financial technology company that uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to power a credit analysis network for financial institutions. Its proprietary AI algorithms assess credit risk more effectively, enabling partners to expand access to credit and grow their lending portfolios. Pagaya's competitive advantage lies in its advanced AI models and growing network effect, acting as a technology enabler in consumer finance.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 685.4M | 772.8M | 1.0B | 1.3B | 22.5% | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 14.3% |
| EPS | -8.28 | -2.14 | -5.66 | 0.99 | — | 1.38 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 11.4% |
| Shares | 56.9M | 62.0M | 73.9M | 82.0M | +44.1% | 72.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 212.3M | 412.6M | 680.8M | 858.5M | 59.3% | 907.3M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 553.5M | 559.7M | 326.5M | 480.0M | -4.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | -40.0M | -21.7M | 47.8M | 238.6M | 399.7% | 264.7M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -265.4M | -381.5M | -479.9M | -309.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 437.9M | 289.1M | 436.7M | 129.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 30 weeks, 84% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
The Momentum score still reads 66: it looks back six months, so it has not caught up with this fall.
Swung more than 85% of stocks we rank over the past year (73% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of PGY are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGY | Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(you) | $1.6B | 99 | Strong Buy |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | $1.9B | 98 | Strong Buy |
| GCT | GigaCloud Technology Inc. | $2.1B | 96 | Strong Buy |
| RAMP | LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. | $2.3B | 98 | Strong Buy |
| FLYW | Flywire Corporation | $1.7B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| TDC | Teradata Corporation | $3.2B | 97 | Strong Buy |
| OSPN | OneSpan Inc. | $744M | 97 | Strong Buy |
| PAYS | Paysign, Inc. | $842M | 94 | Strong Buy |
| FIVN | Five9, Inc. | $2.8B | 92 | Strong Buy |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | $1.9B | 83 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 4.7% · P/E 32.7x · Gross margin 52.2%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.