ACRE
SinkerAres Commercial Real Estate Corporation · Real Estate · United States · $186M cap · $2.5M/day traded
$3.61 +1.4% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) is 21/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 34, Value 41, Momentum 29, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORPORATION
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Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation is a specialty finance company structured as a REIT that originates and manages a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate debt. The company benefits from a strong competitive moat through its direct affiliation with Ares Management Corporation, providing access to extensive market intelligence and origination networks. It focuses primarily on senior middle-market loans across diverse property types in the United States.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 109.0M | 81.4M | -15.2M | 22.9M | -40.5% | 35.5M | 23.4M | 25.1M | 4.6% |
| EPS | 0.58 | -0.72 | -0.64 | -0.02 | — | 0.02 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 54.4M | 54.1M | 54.5M | 55.0M | +1.1% | 55.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.7B | 1.6B | 1.2B | 1.0B | -15.5% | 1.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 747.5M | 625.8M | 540.1M | 509.6M | -12.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 57.2M | 46.8M | 35.5M | 21.4M | -28.0% | 15.4M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 193.2M | 127.5M | 427.9M | 148.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -159.7M | -205.1M | -507.6M | -168.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 2 weeks, 13% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 62% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 36% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ACRE are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation(you) | $186M | 21 |
| ACR | ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. | $183M | 19 |
| AOMR | Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. | $184M | 16 |
| MITT | TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. | $173M | 15 |
| RPT | Rithm Property Trust Inc. | $88M | 20 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $337M | 15 |
| RC | Ready Capital Corporation | $174M | 5 |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $171M | 4 |
| CHMI | Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation | $96M | 26 |
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $463M | 25 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.