RWT
SinkerRedwood Trust, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $399M cap · $10.0M/day traded
$2.96 -0.3% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
After its 3 Nov results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 1.0%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) is 7/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 12, Value 46, Momentum 21, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT REDWOOD TRUST, INC.
Read
Redwood Trust, Inc. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing in residential and commercial real estate-related assets, particularly jumbo prime and single-family rental (SFR) mortgages. The company distinguishes itself through its expertise in structured finance and credit risk transfer, originating and investing in loans that do not typically fit into government-sponsored enterprise programs. Redwood Trust's specialized underwriting capabilities and agile capital allocation provide a competitive advantage in niche segments of the housing finance market.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | -26.9M | 143.9M | 223.3M | 131.0M | -4.6% | 220.1M | 233.9M | 256.3M | 39.9% |
| EPS | 2.79 | -1.43 | -0.11 | 0.36 | -0.63 | -49.5% | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Shares | — | 113.5M | 131.5M | 132.5M | 124.5M | +9.7% | 116.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 11.5B | 12.8B | 16.4B | 22.1B | 24.4% | 28.9B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 982.6M | -3.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | -139.1M | -2.0B | -5.9B | -10.1B | — | -10.1B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | 213.9M | 908.7M | 2.5B | 4.5B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -276.9M | 1.1B | 3.3B | 5.7B | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 4 trading days ago, 52% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 53% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 44% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of RWT are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| RWT | Redwood Trust, Inc.(you) | $399M | 7 |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. | $592M | 8 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $337M | 15 |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $604M | 15 |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | $704M | 15 |
| RC | Ready Capital Corporation | $174M | 5 |
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $463M | 25 |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $171M | 4 |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | $997M | 13 |
| AOMR | Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. | $184M | 16 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.