DX
Hot AirDynex Capital, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $2.7B cap · $74.8M/day traded
$10.42 -2.0% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
After its 19 Oct results, analysts raised next year's EPS estimate 5.6%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) is 28/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 32, Value 30, Momentum 55, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT DYNEX CAPITAL, INC.
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Dynex Capital, Inc. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis. The company primarily focuses on agency and non-agency residential and commercial MBS, aiming to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for shareholders. As an internally managed mREIT, it navigates interest rate and credit risk to provide dividend income from its structured portfolio.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 177.0M | 26.7M | 150.4M | 372.1M | 28.1% | 17.0M | 381.0M | 537.9M | 20.2% |
| EPS | 0.66 | -0.05 | 0.49 | 2.49 | 55.8% | 0.28 | 4.55 | — | 82.8% |
| Shares | 259.6M | 259.6M | 259.6M | 174.8M | -32.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | 901.3M | 870.7M | 1.2B | 2.5B | 39.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 126.4M | 62.2M | 14.4M | 120.8M | -1.5% | 249.7M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -65.4M | -3.0B | -1.0B | -8.1B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -32.3M | 2.7B | 1.4B | 8.3B | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 92% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 19% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of DX are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc.(you) | $2.7B | 28 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $1.8B | 17 |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | $1.5B | 38 |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $1.8B | 15 |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $4.8B | 16 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $849M | 25 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 31 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $1.2B | 42 |
| AGNCM | AGNC Investment Corp. | $8.6B | 37 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $673M | 22 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.