BXMT
SinkerBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $1.8B cap · $40.9M/day traded
$11.01 -0.8% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
After its 28 Oct results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is 15/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 37, Value 37, Momentum 20, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC.
Read
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance company that primarily originates and acquires senior mortgage loans secured by high-quality commercial properties across North America, Europe, and Australia. The company's competitive advantage stems from its strategic affiliation with Blackstone, which provides unparalleled access to deal sourcing, market intelligence, and capital. BXMT focuses on first-mortgage debt, offering a relatively defensive investment profile within the commercial real estate lending sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 628.0M | 670.7M | 493.2M | 552.8M | -4.2% | 146.1M | 453.4M | 383.8M | -16.7% |
| EPS | 1.46 | 1.43 | -1.17 | 0.64 | -24.0% | -2.23 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 40.8% |
| Shares | 171.7M | 173.2M | 172.8M | 168.3M | -2.0% | 166.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 20.4B | 19.3B | 15.7B | 16.2B | -7.5% | 14.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 4.5B | 4.4B | 3.8B | 3.5B | -8.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 396.8M | 458.8M | 366.5M | 275.9M | -11.4% | 352.8M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -3.3B | 1.4B | 3.5B | 359.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 2.6B | -1.8B | -3.9B | -514.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 3 weeks, 10% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 81% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 26% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of BXMT are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.(you) | $1.8B | 15 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $1.8B | 17 |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | $997M | 13 |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | $704M | 15 |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $4.8B | 16 |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | $2.7B | 28 |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $604M | 15 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $849M | 25 |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | $1.5B | 38 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $673M | 22 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.