EFC
Hot AirEllington Financial Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $1.5B cap · $21.8M/day traded
$11.17 -1.6% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) is 38/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 37, Value 39, Momentum 54, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ELLINGTON FINANCIAL INC.
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Ellington Financial Inc. is an externally managed mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that invests in a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related assets, including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, mortgage loans, and other credit assets. The company distinguishes itself through its active investment management approach, seeking to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns across various market conditions by opportunistically deploying capital. Ellington Financial's strategy extends beyond traditional agency MBS, focusing on credit-sensitive assets.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 43.1M | 256.5M | 282.2M | 306.5M | 92.2% | 466.0M | 422.2M | 470.4M | 23.9% |
| EPS | -1.43 | 0.89 | 1.36 | 1.19 | 15.6% | 0.54 | 1.33 | 1.26 | 3.0% |
| Shares | 63.8M | 83.0M | 90.7M | 113.1M | +77.3% | 130.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 12.4B | 13.3B | 14.2B | 17.0B | 11.0% | 19.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.2B | 1.5B | 1.6B | 1.8B | 15.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 42.7M | -241.9M | -430.5M | -925.5M | — | -925.5M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.8B | 174.9M | -728.3M | -4.1B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 1.8B | 75.6M | 1.1B | 5.1B | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 93% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 19% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of EFC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc.(you) | $1.5B | 38 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $1.2B | 42 |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | $2.7B | 28 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 31 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $1.8B | 17 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $849M | 25 |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | $482M | 40 |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $1.8B | 15 |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $518M | 32 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $673M | 22 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.2% · P/E 24.0x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.