ENPH
SinkerEnphase Energy, Inc. · Technology · United States · $4.2B cap · $192.9M/day traded
$26.78 -5.4% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
After its 27 Oct results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 32.8%.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) is 14/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 43, Value 32, Momentum 16, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ENPHASE ENERGY, INC.
Read
Enphase Energy, Inc. designs, develops, and sells microinverter-based solar-plus-storage systems for residential and commercial markets. The company is a technology leader with proprietary microinverter technology and a sophisticated energy management platform, providing superior reliability, efficiency, and safety. Enphase is a key innovator in the solar energy sector, driving the adoption of intelligent energy systems that integrate solar generation, storage, and software management.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3B | 2.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | -14.2% | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.0B | -16.2% |
| EPS | 2.94 | 3.22 | 0.76 | 1.31 | -23.6% | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.94 | -15.1% |
| Shares | 136.4M | 135.7M | 132.4M | 131.1M | -3.9% | 132.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.2B | -2.2% | 614.6M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 825.6M | 983.6M | 833.0M | 1.1B | 9.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 744.8M | 696.8M | 513.7M | 136.5M | -43.2% | 190.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -371.9M | -366.4M | 128.3M | 106.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -17.1M | -516.8M | -460.3M | -241.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 11 trading days ago, 64% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 89% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 83% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling (this stock): It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ENPH are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENPH | Enphase Energy, Inc.(you) | $4.2B | 14 |
| RUN | Sunrun Inc. | $1.8B | 20 |
| ARRY | Array Technologies, Inc. | $491M | 19 |
| NXT | Nextpower Inc. | $12.1B | 41 |
| SHLS | Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | $1.3B | 47 |
| FSLR | First Solar, Inc. | $18.5B | 63 |
| SPWR | SunPower Inc. | $72M | 9 |
| FTCI | FTC Solar, Inc. | $77M | 4 |
| AXTI | AXT, Inc. | $3.4B | 19 |
| CORZ | Core Scientific, Inc. | $4.2B | 4 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.0% · P/E 28.8x · Gross margin 52.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.