RUN
Bargain BinSunrun Inc. · Technology · United States · $1.8B cap · $95.8M/day traded
$8.52 -6.1% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 45.0%.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is 20/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 24, Value 60, Momentum 18, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT SUNRUN INC.
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Sunrun Inc. is the largest residential solar installer and provider of solar-as-a-service in the United States, offering home solar panels, battery storage, and energy services. The company benefits from significant scale, proprietary installation and financing models, and a robust sales and service network, creating a strong competitive advantage in customer acquisition and operational efficiency. As a market leader, Sunrun's subscription model provides predictable recurring revenue while driving the adoption of residential solar energy and energy independence for homeowners.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3B | 2.3B | 2.0B | 3.0B | 8.4% | 3.9B | 3.4B | 3.3B | 5.8% |
| EPS | 0.82 | -7.41 | -12.81 | 1.96 | 33.7% | 1.98 | 2.02 | 1.14 | -23.8% |
| Shares | 214.2M | 219.4M | 225.7M | 233.6M | +9.1% | 242.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 8.8B | 11.1B | 13.0B | 14.8B | 19.0% | 15.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 6.7B | 5.2B | 2.6B | 3.1B | -22.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | -848.8M | -820.7M | -766.2M | -421.4M | — | 222.8M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -2.1B | -2.6B | -2.7B | -2.5B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 3.0B | 3.5B | 3.4B | 3.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 3 weeks, 26% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Swung more than 87% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 77% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of RUN are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUN | Sunrun Inc.(you) | $1.8B | 20 |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy, Inc. | $4.2B | 14 |
| ARRY | Array Technologies, Inc. | $491M | 19 |
| SHLS | Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | $1.3B | 47 |
| NXT | Nextpower Inc. | $12.1B | 41 |
| SPWR | SunPower Inc. | $72M | 9 |
| FTCI | FTC Solar, Inc. | $77M | 4 |
| FSLR | First Solar, Inc. | $18.5B | 63 |
| TYGO | Tigo Energy, Inc. | $79M | 50 |
| AEHR | Aehr Test Systems, Inc. | $1.8B | 22 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.1% · P/E 29.2x · Gross margin 52.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.