FSLR
Unloved QualityAI neutralFirst Solar, Inc. · Technology · United States · $18.5B cap · $484.0M/day traded
$172.30 -3.3% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
Around its 29 Oct results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 1.4%.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is 63/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 69, Value 54, Momentum 36, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
First Solar is the largest US-based solar module maker, using cadmium telluride thin-film technology that avoids Chinese polysilicon supply chains. It benefits from US manufacturing credits, tariffs on imports and rising power demand from data centres, and it has a multi-year contracted backlog. However, solar shares have been hit as 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest level since 2004, which raises financing costs for utility-scale projects, and US policy support remains subject to political change.
ABOUT FIRST SOLAR, INC.
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First Solar, Inc. is a leading global provider of comprehensive photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions, specializing in the development and manufacturing of advanced cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar modules. The company's vertically integrated business model and proprietary thin-film technology offer a differentiated product, recognized for its superior performance in certain conditions and lower carbon footprint compared to traditional silicon modules. Its U.S.-based manufacturing capacity and focus on utility-scale projects provide a strong competitive moat in the evolving renewable energy sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6B | 3.3B | 4.2B | 5.2B | 25.8% | 5.0B | 4.8B | 5.8B | 5.3% |
| EPS | -0.41 | 7.78 | 12.07 | 14.25 | 35.3% | 17.29 | 17.64 | 23.15 | 27.5% |
| Shares | 106.6M | 106.8M | 107.1M | 107.3M | +0.7% | 107.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 234.1M | 624.4M | 718.8M | 655.3M | 40.9% | 325.0M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 5.8B | 6.7B | 8.0B | 9.5B | 17.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 873.4M | 602.3M | 1.2B | 2.1B | 33.1% | 839.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.2B | -472.8M | -1.6B | -765.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 309.4M | 336.9M | 24.8M | -119.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 2 weeks, 4% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Swung more than 66% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 53% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of FSLR are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | First Solar, Inc.(you) | $18.5B | 63 |
| NXT | Nextpower Inc. | $12.1B | 41 |
| SHLS | Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. | $1.3B | 47 |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy, Inc. | $4.2B | 14 |
| RUN | Sunrun Inc. | $1.8B | 20 |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | $20.6B | 64 |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corporation | $17.6B | 61 |
| FIS | Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $19.4B | 57 |
| DT | Dynatrace, Inc. | $18.6B | 56 |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $16.0B | 68 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.0% · P/E 29.2x · Gross margin 52.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.