ABR
SinkerArbor Realty Trust, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $592M cap · $13.8M/day traded
$1.39 -5.4% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is 8/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 22, Value 42, Momentum 16, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ARBOR REALTY TRUST, INC.
Read
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a specialized real estate finance company that primarily invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets, multi-family and commercial real estate, and mortgage-related investments. The company's expertise in originating and servicing multi-family and commercial real estate loans, particularly Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, provides a strong competitive niche. It operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) with a focus on income generation from its loan portfolio.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 619.1M | 721.0M | 625.9M | 501.2M | -6.8% | 444.5M | 376.8M | 306.2M | -21.8% |
| EPS | 1.72 | 1.79 | 1.18 | 0.56 | -31.2% | -0.58 | 0.38 | 0.53 | -2.3% |
| Shares | 178.2M | 188.5M | 189.3M | 195.5M | +9.7% | 184.2M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 10.1B | 9.4B | 7.2B | 6.4B | -14.2% | 11.2B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.9B | 3.1B | 3.0B | 3.0B | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.1B | 235.9M | 461.5M | 372.4M | -30.3% | 334.6M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -2.3B | 1.9B | 1.2B | -1.3B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 1.6B | -1.8B | -2.5B | 798.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low in the latest session, 83% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 70% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 56% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ABR are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.(you) | $592M | 8 |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | $604M | 15 |
| RWT | Redwood Trust, Inc. | $399M | 7 |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corporation | $704M | 15 |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | $997M | 13 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $673M | 22 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $337M | 15 |
| BRSP | BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $463M | 25 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | $849M | 25 |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $518M | 32 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.