NLY
SinkerAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. · Real Estate · United States · $13.8B cap · $227.4M/day traded
$18.33 -2.1% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Score down 1.3 since 11 Nov.
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
After its 21 Oct results, analysts raised next year's EPS estimate 0.6%.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is 31/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 34, Value 37, Momentum 50, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC.
Read
Annaly Capital Management is a prominent mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) primarily investing in agency mortgage-backed securities, providing exposure to the U.S. housing finance market. Its competitive advantages stem from its scale, sophisticated risk management capabilities in navigating interest rate environments, and REIT structure offering tax efficiencies. The company generates income through net interest margin on its substantial, leveraged portfolio.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0B | -1.4B | 1.2B | 2.2B | 4.7% | 1.4B | 4.1B | 4.6B | 43.8% |
| EPS | 3.93 | -3.61 | 1.62 | 2.92 | -9.4% | 1.44 | 3.13 | 3.11 | 3.3% |
| Shares | 468.3M | 500.1M | 578.4M | 707.0M | +51.0% | 787.9M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 8.8B | 13.2B | 21.4B | 31.9B | 53.7% | 127.6B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 11.3B | 11.3B | 12.6B | 16.1B | 12.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 5.4B | 2.4B | 3.3B | 692.9M | -49.5% | 3.7B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -14.5B | -8.4B | -15.0B | -27.4B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 9.4B | 5.9B | 11.8B | 27.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 90% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 21% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of NLY are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management, Inc.(you) | $13.8B | 31 |
| AGNCM | AGNC Investment Corp. | $8.6B | 38 |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $4.8B | 16 |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | $2.7B | 27 |
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp. | $5.2B | 58 |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | $1.5B | 37 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $1.8B | 17 |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $1.8B | 15 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $1.2B | 41 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 30 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.2% · P/E 24.0x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.