RITM
Hot AirRithm Capital Corp. · Real Estate · United States · $5.2B cap · $64.1M/day traded
$9.21 -0.6% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) is 57/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 38, Value 45, Momentum 68, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT RITHM CAPITAL CORP.
Read
Rithm Capital Corp. is a diversified financial services company primarily focused on the real estate and financial technology sectors, encompassing mortgage origination, servicing, and investment in mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). Its vertically integrated model across the mortgage ecosystem provides a competitive edge, enabling comprehensive management and opportunistic investment throughout various market cycles. The company actively manages a significant portfolio of real estate-related assets and credit investments.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 3.6B | 2.1B | 3.0B | 2.9B | -6.8% | 4.9B | 3.8B | 4.0B | 18.0% |
| EPS | 1.56 | 1.84 | 1.11 | 1.69 | 1.05 | -9.4% | 0.63 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 0.3% |
| Shares | — | 473.7M | 483.2M | 520.7M | 555.9M | +17.3% | 558.4M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 24.1B | 27.0B | 32.8B | 35.6B | 13.9% | 38.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 6.9B | 7.0B | 7.8B | 8.4B | 6.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 5.8B | 693.6M | -2.2B | -1.3B | -87.9% | -1.4B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | 132.9M | 216.7M | -2.4B | 2.7B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -5.8B | -842.5M | 4.8B | -507.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 32 weeks, 19% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
The Momentum score still reads 68: it looks back six months, so it has not caught up with this fall.
Calmer than 80% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 27% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of RITM are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp.(you) | $5.2B | 57 |
| AGNCN | AGNC Investment Corp. | $8.7B | 39 |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | $2.7B | 28 |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $4.8B | 16 |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | $1.5B | 38 |
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | $13.8B | 33 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $1.2B | 42 |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. | $825M | 77 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $1.8B | 17 |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $1.8B | 15 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.2% · P/E 24.0x · Gross margin 65.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.