AGNCN
Hot AirAGNC Investment Corp. · Real Estate · United States · $8.7B cap · $701K/day traded
$25.44 -0.1% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCN) is 39/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 33, Value 26, Momentum 73, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT AGNC INVESTMENT CORP.
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AGNC Investment Corp. is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests predominantly in agency residential mortgage-backed securities (Agency MBS) on a leveraged basis. The company generates income from the net interest spread on its investment portfolio, actively managing interest rate and prepayment risks. As a pure-play Agency MBS mREIT, AGNC is a significant player in this market, known for its focus on delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through monthly dividends.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -1.1B | 251.0M | 973.0M | 1.8B | 167.6% | 236.0M | 4.0B | 124.3% |
| EPS | -2.25 | 0.05 | 0.81 | — | 1667.4% | -1.86 | — | — |
| Shares | 574.6M | 694.3M | 897.4M | 477.8M | -16.8% | 477.8M | — | — |
| Debt | 95.0M | 80.0M | 64.0M | 56.0M | -16.2% | — | — | — |
| Equity | 7.9B | 8.3B | 9.8B | 12.4B | 16.3% | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.0B | -118.0M | 86.0M | 653.0M | -13.6% | 1.1B | — | — |
| Inv CF | 11.2B | -14.7B | -11.2B | -25.9B | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -11.4B | 14.2B | 11.1B | 25.2B | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 1% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 99% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 5% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AGNCN are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCN | AGNC Investment Corp.(you) | $8.7B | 39 |
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management, Inc. | $13.8B | 31 |
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp. | $5.2B | 58 |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | $4.8B | 16 |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | $2.7B | 27 |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | $1.5B | 37 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $1.2B | 41 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | $1.8B | 17 |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $1.8B | 15 |
| ADAM | Adamas Trust, Inc. | $702M | 30 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.3% · P/E 23.9x · Gross margin 65.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.