MTG
Unloved QualityAI pickMGIC Investment Corporation · Financial Services · United States · $5.9B cap · $67.2M/day traded
$27.76 -0.4% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) is 76/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 77, Value 51, Momentum 46, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
MGIC is one of a handful of US private mortgage insurers approved to protect the government-sponsored mortgage agencies against default. That market structure limits competition and supports disciplined pricing. Its insured book is built on tighter post-2008 underwriting, much of it now protected by reinsurance. Credit losses have stayed low while embedded home equity is high, and higher rates slow refinancing, which keeps policies in force longer and lifts investment income on its bond portfolio. It is returning capital at an unusual pace: shares repurchased in the last 90 days equal about 6.48% of shares outstanding, and it raised its quarterly dividend in July. Insider selling is small at about 0.12%. A steady insured book that shrinks the share count this fast can grow earnings per share even if new business is flat.
ABOUT MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION
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MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance (PMI) to protect mortgage lenders and investors against losses from borrower defaults. The company's competitive moat is its established brand, extensive relationships with mortgage originators, and robust underwriting expertise, which allows it to accurately assess and price risk. As one of the largest private mortgage insurers in the U.S., MGIC plays a vital role in enabling homeownership by facilitating low-down payment mortgages.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.1% | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | -0.4% |
| EPS | 1.85 | 2.83 | 2.51 | 2.92 | 3.17 | 14.4% | 3.22 | 3.30 | 3.48 | 4.8% |
| Shares | — | 293.4M | 272.5M | 248.4M | 219.4M | -25.2% | 198.9M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 662.8M | 643.2M | 644.7M | 646.1M | -0.8% | 647.2M | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 4.6B | 5.1B | 5.2B | 5.1B | 3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 650.0M | 713.0M | 725.0M | 852.8M | 9.5% | 709.1M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | 410.5M | -179.2M | -142.0M | 228.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -1.0B | -496.0M | -719.0M | -940.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 12% below its 52-week high.
The Momentum score still reads 46: it weighs six months of price and earnings revisions, so it trails a turn like this.
Calmer than 83% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 25% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend (this stock): It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Financial Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of MTG are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation(you) | $5.9B | 76 |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 72 |
| RDN | Radian Group Inc. | $4.7B | 84 |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 79 |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | $6.6B | 61 |
| FNF | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $10.8B | 61 |
| ITIC | Investors Title Company | $532M | 60 |
| EIG | Employers Holdings, Inc. | $935M | 37 |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE, Inc. | $488M | 48 |
| OZK | Bank OZK | $5.5B | 78 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.6% · P/E 12.8x · Gross margin 70.8%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.