RDN
Full HouseAI screen passRadian Group Inc. · Financial Services · United States · $4.7B cap · $60.5M/day traded
$36.75 -1.3% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Score down 1.2 since 12 Nov.
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, and the market agrees.
After its 3 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Radian Group Inc. (RDN) is 84/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 68, Value 63, Momentum 52, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Radian Group clears the calibrated bar. All three legs are above the floor (Q67 V55 M61) and there are two independent corroborating filings: insiders bought 0.13% against 0.04% sold, net buying, and a buyback retired 5.95% of shares outstanding in 90 days, one of the largest capital returns seen in this run. Nothing adverse is on file: no negative earnings revision and no net selling. Mortgage insurance in-force benefits from higher-for-longer rates, since borrowers with low legacy mortgage rates do not refinance away, extending the premium-earning life of the book.
The ranks quoted here are from the day it was written; today's Quality, Value and Momentum are the bars above.
ABOUT RADIAN GROUP INC.
Read
Radian Group Inc. is a leading provider of private mortgage insurance (PMI) and related services to the U.S. mortgage and real estate markets. The company's competitive advantage stems from its approved status with government-sponsored enterprises, its strong capital position, and sophisticated risk management analytics that support mortgage lenders. Radian plays a critical role in enabling homeownership by facilitating the availability of low down payment mortgages while protecting lenders from credit risk.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 0.2% | 2.0B | 2.1B | 2.3B | 38.6% |
| EPS | 4.42 | 3.81 | 3.96 | 4.18 | -1.8% | 4.22 | 4.93 | 5.20 | 11.6% |
| Shares | 157.1M | 153.2M | 147.6M | 135.5M | -13.7% | 129.9M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.1B | 1.1B | -10.3% | 1.2B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 3.9B | 4.4B | 4.6B | 4.8B | 6.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 388.3M | 529.4M | -663.6M | 119.9M | -32.4% | 119.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -5.2M | -300.8M | 327.7M | 127.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -479.2M | -265.1M | 357.2M | -243.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 6 weeks, 20% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
The Momentum score still reads 52: it looks back six months, so it has not caught up with this fall.
Calmer than 81% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 26% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Financial Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of RDN are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDN | Radian Group Inc.(you) | $4.7B | 84 |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | $5.9B | 76 |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 79 |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 72 |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | $6.6B | 61 |
| FNF | Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $10.8B | 61 |
| ITIC | Investors Title Company | $532M | 60 |
| EIG | Employers Holdings, Inc. | $935M | 37 |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE, Inc. | $488M | 48 |
| CRVL | CorVel Corporation | $4.2B | 84 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.6% · P/E 12.8x · Gross margin 71.1%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.